The hawks have been flying at Hook! We welcomed days with North winds and cool temperatures in September this season, a big change

The hawks have been flying at Hook! We welcomed days with North winds and cool temperatures in September this season, a big change from the very hot September days of the last couple of years. With the return of bygone weather, we also had a few more hawks, with 4952 Broad-winged Hawks, more than the last 2 years and just about at average. This is well above our median count of 3405, often considered more typical than the average. So, we did well with Broadwings this year, thanks to your dedication to being on the Hook!  (See Fall 2017 Dailies.)  For a comparison of the strikingly different winds in September 2016 and September 2017, see below.

Other Species at Average:  Golden Eagle and Merlin (59)

John, Vince, and Steve enjoyed seeing our only Golden Eagle of the year so far. It was a close view, and we all wish we were there that day. Our next Golden will be the 200th all-time Golden Eagle at Hook. I can’t wait to find out which day it will be, and which of us will get to see it! Dates for Golden sightings in the last 3 years were:

2014: 10/25, 10/27 (2), 10/31, 11/7, 11/11

2015: 10/16, 10/17, 10/19, 10/23 (2), 10/30 (2), 10/31, 11/14, 11/23

2016: 11/6 (2), 11/18, 11/23 (2)

For the dates above when 2 Goldens passed over Hook, the following winds are noted on Wunderground, using wind speed as average > gusts:

WNW 9>23, NNW 10>28, WNW 10>23, NNW 11>29, NW 12>25.

Drew is right – he always says that Goldens like the blustery days. So, be sure to get up to Hook on any of the next blustery days.  

Bald Eagle checks us out!  10/19/17  Note the uneven border of the remiges on this immature

Possible Record Highs - Bald Eagle and Peregrine Falcon Our good news for the season are our above average hawks. As expected, these include Bald Eagles, currently at a count of 164. We need 34 more to reach a new record. Last year we counted 40 in the time remaining, so a new record is possible. Our surprise of this season is the Peregrine Falcon.  We have counted 49 so far.  Our record year of 54 was 1990, a year when numbers were low on the barrier beach but high inland.  I had not expected to get close to the record for years, but we only have 6 Peregrines to go for a new record!  Last year we counted 11 PGs after Oct 22, so a new record is very possible, perhaps even likely.

We have counted 1070 Sharpies so far. Our record low, in 2016, was 1426, so we need almost 400 to avoid a new record low. Hopefully we will do that. The adults are moving through now, so there will be more to come. But, on average we can expect only about 255 more to come. Hopefully, I am wrong about this one, but it looks very much like we will hit a new low for our beloved Sharpies.

Kestrels are still below average: a count of 190 compared to an average of 221 by Oct 22. We have already past the low of 152 for the year in 2008, so at least it will not be a record low year. And, there is hope that we can break 200 again this year.

So, be sure to come up to Hook and help us count!

Trudy

Below are two graphs that require a bit of interpretation.  They show wind direction for September 2016 and September 2017.  The vertical axis at left represents clockwise degrees from north.  Both 0⁰  and 360⁰   represent north, so North is both at the top and at the bottom of each graph.  The top square represents NW winds, and the bottom square represents NE winds.  The middle line, at 180⁰ represents South winds.  The two vertical lines show the bounds of our typical Broadwing season, from Sep 10 to Sep 24.

 The difference in the wind patterns for the two years is striking, with a jumbled mix of winds in 2016, when the Broadwing flight was weak and late; and north winds predominant this year, with our stronger flight.

2016:  2016 was the year when we thought the Broadwings would never come.  Looking at the winds above, 9/11 and 9/14 both had NW winds and look good for hawks.  However, further investigation shows high winds on 9/11, and rain with thunderstorms on 9/14 and 9/15, inhibiting migration.  By 9/20 the winds had more or less shifted towards North, and the BWs finally came.  Our 2 days with counts of more than 100 finally arrived with 2212 BWs on 9/21 and 176 on 9/24. 

2017:  The two days with our highest Broadwing counts this year were 9/11 with 839 and 9/22 with 3164.  These days are noted on the graph by the boxes on the horizontal axis.  Note that each of these occurred after 2 days of sustained NW or NNW winds.  The only other days with triple digit counts were 9/10 with 100 and 9/12 with 377.  These days also were preceded by a day or more of NW winds. 

We have known for years that our Broadwing flights were associated with light winds and well developed thermals.  We also suspected that their numbers were effected by winds.  These graphs support the wind hypothesis.

While Penn & Teller might have been able to give you the correct date for the Broadwing peak this year, I definitely got fooled !   Our big day this year was Sep 21 !   That was a week later than I expected.  It was Steve’s day, and Tom was the one who spied the Broadwings kettling off to the northwest of Hook, late in the day.  Their total Broadwing count that day was 2212.  And, like many of you, I missed it.  (See Fall 2016 Dailies.)

The Good News: Osprey and Bald Eagle

Osprey and Bald Eagles are doing well so far this season. The Osprey count of 291 is about 40% above average (since 2004), and the Bald Eagle count of 102 is 33% above average. We set new records for Bald Eagle in 2013, 2014, and 2015.  With an above average year, there is a temptation to think that we will set a new record again this year.  However, we need a few extra Eagles to catch up to last year, when we had 110 by Oct 1.

Adult Bald Eagle checks out the owl Sep 22 2016

The Not-so-Good News: Harriers, Sharpies, and Kestrels

We have below average counts for Northern Harriers, Sharp-shinned Hawks, and American Kestrel.

At 33 on Oct 1, Northern Harriers are down 44%, but are typically variable. Furthermore, they continue to migrate throughout the season. So there should be many more coming before the end of the season.

We have counted only 531 Sharp-shinned Hawks this season, 43% below average. This is behind last year’s 740 by Oct 1. Last year was our rock bottom year for Sharpies, with only 1433 for the whole season! In most years we have had one or two days with more than 100 Sharpies. This year our highest count was on 9/26, when Carol’s group counted 83. I am hoping that, like the Broadwings, our Sharpies are also a week behind, and we will be seeing higher than usual numbers for the weeks ahead.

At only 119 American Kestrels on Oct 1, we are 24% below average and also behind last year’s 161. We have struggled in recent years to reach at least 200 Kestrels per year, and continue in that struggle.

When I look back to the dates when averages for these three species were equivalent to this year’s Oct 1 count, the dates range from Sep 20 to Sep 22. So, it appears that our flight is a little more than a week late. Hopefully, it is a weather artifact and the flight will recover in the weeks ahead!   

So, be sure to come up to Hook and help us count!

Trudy

It’s that time of the year again – the Broad-winged Hawks are about to descend upon us!

Most Broadwings pass over Hook from Sep 11 to Sep 24 (see Broadwing season). It is quite amazing to think about that. Broad-winged Hawks are our most prevalent species, comprising 61% of all hawks counted since 1971, and 42% to 58% in any of the last few years.
We count hawks from Sep to Thanksgiving on 75 to 80 days. Yet we can expect about 50% of all the hawks counted this year to fly past Hook in the next 2 weeks! What an amazing phenomenon!

Days with more than 1000 Broad-winged Hawks
There have been 16 days since 2004 when we counted more than 1000 Broadwings at Hook. This occurred on at least 1 day in every year and, over the 12 years, on every date from Sep 14 to Sep 22, except Sep 18. The following table shows the number of years for each date.

While this is only 12 years of data, there seems to be a pattern of peak days occurring earlier in the season in the years since 2010 than in the years before 2010. Check out the graph of September Dates vs. Years.

The graph suggests that counts of more than 1000 BWs occur about 1/2 day earlier each year.

So, when will our big day be this year?

It seems most likely to be some time in this next week, between now and Sep 17.
The regression line puts it somewhere between the 14th and 15th, but closer to the 14th.
The probabilities put it at Sep 16th – that was the big day for five of the last 12 years! (Note the 5 dots along the horizontal line for Sep 16)
The seasonal distribution puts it at Sep 17th, the day we had almost 15,000 in 2011.

That brings us to the weather. Broadwings need good thermals, which occur when there is sunshine and light winds. The forecast for this week is for sun on almost every day, straight through the week. So, we need to look for the days when the wind is too light to disrupt the thermals created by the sun warming the earth’s surface.
But, caution!   All this is with the absence of any significant 2 or 3 digit numbers of Broadwings up north, ..  yet! 

I'm hoping that I pick the right day, and that I see you there! There are exciting days ahead!

Trudy

Golden Eagles

We have reached 8 Golden Eagles by Oct. 31! Our average for a year is 6, so we are doing well. The First Golden arrived on Friday, Oct. 16, and we have had 2 days with 2 Goldens each, and they were both Fridays! Other days with 1 Golden each were on two Saturdays and a Monday.

This is fantastic! And we should be getting more. On average, we get 1 Golden Eagle a week for the first 3 weeks in November.

Bald Eagles

We have not only set a new record for Bald Eagles, but we have reached 2,000 counted since 1971! That is yet another benchmark for this season. The 2,000th Bald Eagle passed by on Friday, 10/30, along with 9 other Bald Eagles and 2 Goldens that day. Our Bald Eagle count so far this season is 172, 2 more than our record of 170 set last year.   Northern Harriers On Tuesday, 10/27/2015, we counted Northern Harrier #7,000 at Hook since 1971. This is the season for the adult males, known as Gray Ghosts to hawk watchers, to migrate. Be sure to get out to see some. They are a special sight.

Bald Eagle peers down on Hook, 10/22/15

More Big Hawks are Coming this Month

The month of November is when the buteos, vultures, and eagles fly over Hook. Come to the Hook to help us count the Red-tailed Hawks, the Red-shouldered Hawks, more Eagles, and maybe a Goshawk or two!

Trudy

Half our average Broad-winged Hawks

Our Broad-winged Hawk (BW) count to Oct 1 is under 2300, less than any year since 2003, and less than half our 10-year average of 4967.

Watch sites to our west and to our east have counted lots more this year, so the BWs did come through - just not over Hook. More went west than east – Mount Peter had more than 11,000, but Quaker Ridge had less than 6000. I suspect that prevailing south winds early in the migration window kept many of the hawks north of us, and due North winds during peak week sent the hawks that had passed us south to our west and the hawks remaining in New England went south to our east. At Hook our peak days for BWs were Wed 9/16, when we counted 1399, and Mon 9/21, when we counted 625.

It is September 12th and our Broad-winged Hawks are on delay, waiting for the weather to break. Today there were several hawk watch sites up in New England that had triple digit numbers of BWs, so they are finally headed our way. Watch for them to pass Hook during this week. Most will be flying by when the sun is shining and thermals abound.

Also watch for our 20,000th American Kestrel. We only need 10 more Kestrels to reach that magic all-time number! (since 1971)

There are exciting days ahead!

Trudy